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Tutorial B: Bias Amelioration in Tradeoff Studies
Full Day Tutorial presented by:
Eric D. Smith
Abstract
Tradeoff studies are broadly recognized and mandated as the method for simultaneously
considering multiple alternatives with many criteria, and as such are recommended in the
Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR)
process. Tradeoff studies, which involve human numerical judgment, calibration and data
updating, are often approached with under confidence by analysts and are often distrusted
by decision makers. The decision-making fields of Judgment and Decision Making, Cognitive
Science and Experimental Economics have built up a large body of research on human biases
and errors in considering numerical and criteria-based choices. Relationships between
experiments in these fields and the elements of tradeoff studies show that tradeoff
studies are susceptible to human biases: this tutorial indicates ways to eliminate the
presence, or ameliorate the effects of mental mistakes on tradeoff studies.
Tutorial Objective
Review biases that affect tradeoff studies. Assess and re-evaluate views of tradeoff
studies. Prepare attendees to formulate better tradeoff studies.
Prerequisites
None.
Bio
Eric D. Smith is currently an Assistant Professor at the University of Texas at El Paso
(UTEP), working within the Industrial Engineering Department and the Systems
Engineering Program. He earned a B.S. in Physics in 1994, an M.S. in Systems
Engineering in 2003, and his Ph.D. in Systems and Industrial Engineering in 2006
from the University of Arizona in Tucson, AZ. His dissertation research lay at the
interface of systems engineering, cognitive science, and multi-criteria decision making.
He taught for two years in The Boeing Company's Systems Engineering Graduate Program at
the Missouri University of Science & Technology. He has given invited talks at the The
Boeing Company, on the topic of risk management, and for a Multiple University Research
Initiative (MURI) composed of the Universities of Arizona, Arizona State University,
Ohio State University, University of Florida, and the University of Michigan, on the
topic of ameliorating mental mistakes in uncertain and complex environments.
Currently, he works with Lockheed Martin Corporation's summer project practicum for
systems engineering students. His current research interests include complex systems
engineering, risk management, and cognitive biases. He is a member of INCOSE, and IIE.
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