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Tutorial G: Dealing with Uncertainty in Systems Engineering
Half Day Tutorial presented by:
Mark Powell
Abstract
Systems Engineering is a discipline that is always practiced in an environment of
uncertainty. Systems Engineers make important decisions with uncertainty in every
aspect of the Project Lifecycle, often simultaneous and sequentially. Classical
statistical methods as traditionally taught to address this problem are rarely practical
for the Systems Engineer. However, recent advances in Statistical Decision Theory
combined with applications of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have finally made the
application of probability and statistics practical for the Systems Engineer in all
aspects, throughout the entire project life cycle. This tutorial addresses these state
of the art techniques, and provides attendees with both the methods and examples of real
world SE problems solved with these new methods.
Tutorial Objective
You will learn about:
- how to apply probability and statistics in actual practice throughout the project lifecycle;
- conditional probability analysis;
- Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques;
- how to provide good support for decisions with unknown decision maker risk aversion.
Prerequisites
A practical understanding of, or an introductory course, in probability and statistics
Bio
Mark Powell has practiced Systems Engineering for over 35 years in a wide variety of
technical environments including DoD, NASA, DOE, and commercial. His roles in these
environments have included project manager, engineering manager, chief systems engineer,
and research scientist. Mr. Powell began teaching in academia in 1980, and has been
teaching Systems Engineering at the graduate level since 1989 at the University of
Idaho, the University of Houston, and Stevens Institute of Technology. Mr. Powell
maintains an active engineering and management consulting practice in North America,
Europe, and Asia. He is an active member of Sigma Xi, ISBA, AIAA, and helped to found
the Texas Gulf Coast Chapter of INCOSE in 1991. Mr. Powell has served INCOSE as Chair
of the Risk Management Working Group, and as Assistant Director for Systems Engineering
Processes.
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